What El Niño means for Southern California this winter

• It is strengthening. NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center expects a strong-to-very-strong El Niño through January–March 2027, and on 8 October 2026 put the chance of a historic event (stronger than any since 1950) at 83 percent for October–December (NOAA CPC).
• The wet season. NOAA’s seasonal outlook favors above-normal rain from December through March, most strongly near the coast (NOAA seasonal outlook). LA County Public Works says storm season starts in mid-October and runs into early spring.
• History. The two strongest El Niños of the past 60 years, 1982–83 and 1997–98, brought much-above-normal rain to all of California.
• It isn’t a guarantee. The very strong 2015–16 event underperformed in Southern California, and the National Weather Service in Los Angeles has said it cannot predict with certainty whether destructive weather will occur. Prepare as if it will: the fixes cost far less before the rain than after it.
• Officials are preparing. Governor Newsom declared a statewide state of emergency for El Niño preparedness on 21 September 2026, and the City of Los Angeles has directed citywide preparedness measures.

Your El Niño home checklist

1. Roof

• Clean gutters, downspouts and roof drains before the first storm, and again after windy days.
• Look for loose, cracked or missing shingles and tiles, and lifted flashing around chimneys, vents, skylights and wall joints. These are where most leaks start.
• Flat roofs: clear the roof drains, scuppers and overflow outlets. Standing water on a flat roof finds its way in.
• Trim tree limbs that hang over the roof, and have weak or leaning trees checked.
• Check the attic on a dry day for water stains, dark spots on the roof sheathing, damp insulation or daylight around vents.
• Keep a tarp on hand.

2. Drainage and foundation

• Make sure the ground slopes away from your house. The California Residential Code calls for the grade to fall at least 6 inches within the first 10 feet from the foundation. Where the lot does not allow that, swales or drains carry the water away.
• Send downspout water away from the foundation with extensions, splash blocks or a connection to a drain line. Talk to your neighbor first if the water would cross onto their lot.
• Clear area drains, yard drains and the street catch basin. In the City of Los Angeles, report a clogged catch basin to LA Sanitation at 1-800-773-2489.
• Look for new cracks in the foundation, doors or windows that suddenly stick, and water or dampness in the crawlspace. Have them checked before the rain makes them worse.
• Retaining walls are built to drain through weep holes or sub-drains. Keep the outlets clear.
• On a hillside lot in the City of Los Angeles, do not add dry wells or rain gardens: the city does not allow infiltration in Hillside Grading Areas. Check your Parcel Profile Report.

3. Sewer backflow

In the City of Los Angeles, a backwater valve is required if your lowest plumbing fixture sits below the next upstream sewer manhole cover. It keeps sewage from backing up into the house during heavy storms. Installing one needs an LADBS permit; have a licensed plumber check the elevations.

4. Hillsides and burn areas

• Mud and debris flows can happen in and below recently burned areas, including the Palisades and Eaton fire areas. The U.S. Geological Survey says the risk stays elevated for two to five years, and a few minutes of intense rain can trigger a flow.
• Check your risk on LA County Public Works’ mud and debris flow forecast, and check flood zones on Cal OES MyHazards and FEMA’s Flood Map Service Center.
• LA County Public Works gives free on-site mudflow advice: (800) 933-0930.
• Sign up for alerts: NotifyLA (City of LA), Alert LA County, and the Genasys Protect app for evacuation zones.
• Steer flows away from structures; don’t try to dam them. Some protective structures need permits.

5. Where to get free sandbags from your city or county

Fill bags only halfway, fold the top under facing upstream, and lay one complete row before starting the next. Sandbags redirect shallow water; they do not make a watertight seal. Put them out shortly before the rain, because bags left out for months break down.

Where you live	Where to get free sandbags
City of Los Angeles	Any LAFD fire station: up to 25 empty bags per household; sand only at listed sites (LAFD)
Unincorporated LA County	LA County Fire stations: up to 25 bags (station locator)
Orange County	Most OCFA fire stations (bags); listed stations also have sand. Bring a shovel (OCFA)
Ventura County	Ventura County Fire stations; call ahead (VCFD)
Riverside County	CAL FIRE / Riverside County Fire stations, limited quantities (RivCoReady)
San Bernardino County	Listed fire stations and city yards; some sites are residents-only (SBCoFD)

6. Insurance

• Most homeowners policies do not cover flood or mudslide, unless a recent wildfire or another covered event caused it.
• Flood insurance usually starts 30 days after you buy it, so buy before the storms, not during them.
• Wind-driven rain and fallen trees are often covered; check your own policy.
• Make a quick photo or video inventory of your home and belongings now.

7. Hiring help safely after a storm

• Check every contractor’s license at cslb.ca.gov or 800-321-2752. Work of $1,000 or more requires a license, and contracting without one in a declared disaster area is a felony.
• Your down payment can’t exceed 10 percent of the job or $1,000, whichever is less.
• Be careful with door-to-door offers. Don’t sign over insurance checks, and get every diagnosis in writing.
• Photograph storm damage before repairs start.

8. The basics

• Have a kit: water for several days, food, a flashlight, a battery or crank radio, a first-aid kit, medications and phone chargers.
• Never drive through a flooded road. A foot of moving water can sweep a car away.
• Turn off sprinklers for 72 hours after a storm.

El Niño FAQs

Is El Niño really coming this winter?

Yes. As of 8 October 2026, NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center has an El Niño Advisory in effect and expects a strong-to-very-strong El Niño through January–March 2027, with an 83 percent chance of a historic event, stronger than any since 1950, for October–December. A strong El Niño raises the odds of a wet Southern California winter but does not guarantee one.

When will the El Niño rain hit Los Angeles?

NOAA’s outlook favors above-normal rain from December through March. LA County’s storm season runs from mid-October into early spring.

What should I do first to prepare my house?

Clean the gutters and downspouts, make sure water drains away from the foundation, and have the roof and foundation checked for weak spots, all before the first big storm. If you live on or below a hillside or near a recent burn area, check your debris-flow risk and sign up for emergency alerts.

Is the inspection really free?

Yes. Through March 31, 2027, Green Design and Build inspects the roof and foundation and gives you a written report with photos, at no charge and with no obligation.

Who does the inspection?

Green Design and Build, a licensed general contractor (CSLB #1110975) based in Van Nuys.

Does homeowners insurance cover El Niño flooding?

Usually not. Most homeowners policies exclude flood and mudslide unless a recent wildfire or another covered event caused them. Flood insurance generally starts 30 days after purchase, so buy it before the storms.

Where can I get free sandbags?

In the City of Los Angeles, at any LAFD fire station (up to 25 bags per household). In the surrounding counties, at county fire stations; see the table above.

Do I need a permit to fix storm damage?

Often. In the City of Los Angeles, anything that affects the structure needs a permit, and re-roofing goes through an LADBS express permit. Photograph the damage and check with LADBS (311) before major repairs.

Forecast information last checked 8 October 2026. For the latest El Niño outlook, see NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, which updates its El Niño discussion monthly.

Sources

• NOAA Climate Prediction Center, ENSO Diagnostic Discussion (8 Oct 2026)
• NOAA CPC seasonal outlook discussion (17 Sep 2026)
• NOAA Climate.gov: United States El Niño impacts
• Office of the Governor: El Niño state of emergency (21 Sep 2026)
• Office of Mayor Karen Bass: El Niño preparedness (5 Oct 2026)
• Ready LA County: Rain and storms
• LA County Public Works: fire and debris-flow FAQ
• U.S. Geological Survey: wildfires and debris flows
• FEMA: Protect Your Home from Flooding
• FloodSmart: flood insurance waiting period
• California Department of Insurance: El Niño guidance (22 Sep 2026)
• Contractors State License Board: Disaster Help Center
• LA Sanitation: wet-weather preparedness
• LA Sanitation: sewer backwater valves
• Ready.gov: Build a Kit

Related: roof leak repair · warning signs your foundation needs repair · seismic retrofit